Once you know sports betting odds, it’s simple to spot the favorite or underdog in a game. You can also see which option is favored among many choices. You can take it a step further. Figure out the implied probability using the odds provided. At tonybet casino, learning about implied probability can help you place better bets. So, what is implied probability? Here’s a breakdown of what you need to know.
What is Implied Probability in Sports Betting?
To find the implied probability of a sports bet, use a formula. This will change the odds into a percentage. It shows the chances of an outcome compared to other options based on the numbers. Implied probability lets you see the odds more clearly. It improves your grasp of betting markets.
A Step-by-step Guide to Calculating Implied Probability on Your Bets
Implied probability in sports betting means turning odds into percentages. This is usually applied to two-way moneyline bets. As an example, let’s consider the pre-game betting line for a random NBA game.
In this matchup, the Celtics are listed as seven-point favorites at home, with the total set at 206. Boston is also a considerable favorite on the moneyline. So, what are the chances the home team actually comes out on top? We can use the moneyline odds for the game. Just plug their absolute values into these formulas.
Negative odds: odds / (odds + 100) * 100 = implied probability
For positive odds, the formula is: 100 ÷ (odds + 100) × 100 = implied probability.
Here’s what the results look like when we add in the moneyline odds for this game.
- Celtics -310: 310/(310+100) * 100 = 75.6%
- Using Heat +245 as an example: 100 ÷ (245 + 100) × 100 = 28.9%.
The Celtics are clear favorites based on the odds. But looking at the implied probability gives us a better view of the matchup. Our results show that Boston has over a 75% chance of winning.
Adding both implied probabilities — 75.6% and 28.9% — gives us a combined total of 104.5%. So why isn’t it an even 100? That’s thanks to the vig the sportsbook is charging. The moneyline already factors it in, so you won’t see it displayed outright.
By running the implied probability, you can tell when the vig is fair and when the sportsbook has a heavier advantage.
You can do the math yourself or find online handicapping calculators with a quick web search. All you need to do is insert the odds into the formula to get your answer.
Is Implied Probability Useful for Other bets?
Implied probability is mainly used with moneyline odds, but it can be used in other contexts too. Keep in mind that the numbers change depending on the wager type — for instance, spreads and totals usually start at -110.
The odds can change based on how much people bet. Still, they usually stay near the baseline. The implied probability for these bets shows that each outcome is nearly a coin flip.
For useful bets, consider those with many options. Look at futures markets for different sports or player props. To illustrate, let’s look at an NBA prop bet that includes many possible outcomes.
Here, the prop line is set at 20+ points, with odds listed for nine different players. Calculating each implied probability takes work, but the insight can be valuable. Here are the results.
The odds show which players are likely to succeed and which are not. Translating odds into percentages helps us see how likely each player is to win.
